Sunday, October 26, 2008

The Bradely Effect

I just got a visual regarding the 'Bradley Effect', the phenomena that some white folks may say to a pollster that they will vote for a black candidate, but once in the voting booth they are unable to do so.

This concept was named after a popular black candidate Tom Bradley who was ahead in the polls and more qualified than his white opponent but surprising lost the election.

I've heard this concept discussed earlier in this election but I never felt much energy around it, and I still don't. The Media is discussing this as one last possible chance for John McCain.

Due to racial discrimination some White's wont vote for an Afro-American, this group will even admit this themselves. This is not the same as the 'Bradley Effect'where those individuals want to be politically correct when answering a pollster.

1.} My vision: I saw a round meter, like a barometer with a needle. In my mind I asked about the Bradley Effect specifically in this election, [this is when I got the visual; intuition often uses symbolism] The meter arrow only move a tiny bit--indicating that this won't be a big factor. The needle barely registered only moving about 3 marker lines.

2.] Then I asked how many won't vote for a black candidate period--the needle jumped to a halfway mark indicating a larger group. However, this group also includes those likely to vote Republican anyhow regardless of race. [The needle jumping halfway did NOT mean that 50% of voters won't vote for a black.]

3.] Then I asked how many will vote for a black this time when normally they may not: the needle jumped again almost to the halfway mark, just a tad below. This demonstrated that perhaps some who otherwise wouldn't vote for a black this time will. They are probably Democratic who either stick with their party, or those who prefer Obama despite his color.

The above intuitive insight only pertained to the the specific question RE: 'Bradley Effect' and was not a generally polling on the 2 candidates.

The visual of the meter pretty much matched my earlier feeling that the 'Bradley Effect' only [not race in general] won't be a big influence.

I think the McCain campaign would've been better off if they focused on a solid message from the beginning verses the new message of the week [or sometimes day.] They have focused too much on what Obama has or hasn't done, or what he is or isn't doing now, or what he may or may not do when he [Obama] becomes President. I'm being generous here by not getting into all the crazy specifics.

It's suffice to say that they have lost a lot of energy by pointing the finger, loosing focus every time a new wind blows. I hope they are not expecting the 'Bradley Effect' to be their ace in the whole...I think they will be sorely disappointed.


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